Hormuz Strait tensions reshape global energy and security dynamics

The Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime chokepoint, has become the focal point of a shifting global geopolitical landscape following a surge in regional military activity. According to an analysis by Annapurna Post, the narrow waterway, which links the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman, has turned from a routine transit route into a strategic instrument of power, with a significant effect on global energy supplies and maritime security.

Data from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, cited by Annapurna Post, indicates that before February 28 (when, according to the same analysis, the United States and Israel launched a joint military attack on Iran) the strait carried about 38 percent of the world's crude oil and 19 percent of its liquefied natural gas (LNG). Traffic has since collapsed. Reuters, as cited by Annapurna Post, reported that daily transits of large commercial vessels, normally about 125 before February 28, had shrunk to just 17 by the third weekend of September. The same analysis puts oil flows at about 9 million barrels a day in August, against roughly 20 million before the war. Asia takes about 80 percent of the crude oil that passes through the strait, the analysis says, and China, India, Japan and South Korea are among the main importers of energy from the Gulf.

Military escalation and procurement

Security tensions in the region have intensified. DC Nepal, citing Iran's IRNA news agency, reported that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claimed to have shot down an MQ-1 drone near Sirak, in the eastern part of the strait, with a new air defense system operating under Iran's integrated air defense network. Iranian officials say it is the 14th time they have downed a drone of this type. Meanwhile, South Korea is weighing its response to the instability. DC Nepal, citing Reuters, reported that South Korean National Security Advisor Wi Sung-lak told a parliamentary audit that Seoul is considering options for a possible military or technical deployment to the strait, such as maritime patrol aircraft, and is in continuing talks with Washington. He repeated that South Korea will not make any direct combat deployment, as President Lee Jae-myung had already announced.

Despite international sanctions and a U.S. naval blockade, Iran has kept up its supply of military equipment. According to a Reuters investigation as reported by Clickmandu, Iran has built a network of more than 5,000 clandestine agencies, through which at least $2 billion worth of military hardware, explosives and heavy vehicles was imported over the past 18 months. The network reportedly relies on foreign shell companies and intermediaries, and has brought in materials from countries including China, Russia and Germany. Clickmandu reported that experts describe it as an industrial-scale effort to rebuild Iran's military capacity.

Strategic alternatives

Annapurna Post's analysis notes that countries have considered alternatives, such as Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, known as Petroline, and the Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline. Their capacities, about 7 million and 1.8 million barrels per day, fall well short of the roughly 20 million barrels per day that crossed the strait before the war, so they cannot replace it immediately. The analysis adds that Petroline can run fully only if the Red Sea and Bab-el-Mandeb stay safe, and that long land pipelines are exposed to attack in wartime, which it says underscores the strategic importance of the sea route.