Regional leaders gather in Manila for ASEAN summits

Leaders are gathering in Manila, the Philippines, for a series of summits hosted by the Philippines as the current chair of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). Al Jazeera reported that the meetings run from Sunday, November 15, until Tuesday. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will be in Manila from November 16 to 18 for the 23rd ASEAN-India summit and the 21st East Asia Summit, said Rudrendra Tandon, Secretary (East) in India's Ministry of External Affairs, according to The Hindu. Both are due on November 17. The summit's theme is "Navigating the Future", and Tandon said maritime security and trade and investment ties would be among its key focus areas.

U.S. President Donald Trump is scheduled to meet Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. during a brief stop in Manila on Tuesday, Al Jazeera reported, before heading to the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Shenzhen, China. The Guardian says APEC begins on Wednesday and may be defined by a confirmed three-way meeting between Trump, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Al Jazeera said it would be the first time the three have met for trilateral talks, and that the White House has confirmed the meeting. The South China Morning Post reported that Trump will press Southeast Asian nations to join Pax Silica at the Manila summit. Hindustan Times, carrying an AFP report, described Pax Silica as a U.S. supply-chain initiative designed to counter China's dominance in semiconductors and rare earths, and said much of the uproar around the summit targets it.

Trade is likely to be among the main topics, Al Jazeera reported. The summit follows tariffs of 10 to 12.5 percent that the Trump administration announced in July on 60 trade partners, including most of the region's economies; the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative said they were imposed over an alleged failure to clamp down on forced labour. Al Jazeera added that the administration is also running trade probes over alleged national security and "excess" manufacturing concerns that could bring more tariffs. Southeast Asian exports have so far weathered the measures. Jayant Menon, a senior fellow at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore, told Al Jazeera that the recent tariffs appear to have had a limited impact on the competitiveness of ASEAN exports, but that this may change with more sectoral tariffs or export controls. The Guardian cited Menon as writing in East Asia Forum that the region's ability to ride out another round of tariffs depends on deeper regional integration and diversification beyond the U.S. market. Phar Kim Beng, a professor of ASEAN studies at the International Islamic University of Malaysia, told Al Jazeera that leaders are likely to reiterate calls for more trade within the region.

Two long-running issues are unlikely to be settled. The Guardian and Hindustan Times both report that a South China Sea code of conduct is not expected to be concluded at this summit; The Guardian says negotiations will continue next year, when ASEAN's chair rotates to Singapore. Both also report that Myanmar remains excluded from high-level ASEAN meetings, and The Guardian says coup leader Min Aung Hlaing remains barred but may send a representative. The Guardian and Hindustan Times also note that the summit coincides with a ruling from the International Court of Justice on whether Myanmar committed genocide. The Guardian says the judgment is due on Thursday, November 19; Hindustan Times says the case concerns Myanmar's Rohingya Muslim minority.

Whether a Quad meeting will be held in Manila is not settled. The Hindu reported that Modi is set to join Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi for a Quad summit there, but that there is no official word on it; Tandon told a media briefing that India had no information on it at the moment. The Hindu added that U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said in October that the next Quad summit would be held on the margins of the ASEAN summit in the Philippines. The Guardian reports that U.S. officials will hold a sidelines meeting of the Quad while Trump is in Manila, and Hindustan Times says his visit is expected to include one.